Calculating First Moments and Confidence Intervals for Generalized Stochastic Dividend Discount Models

William J. Hurley

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Royal Military College, Kingston, Canada.

DOI: 10.4236/jmf.2013.32027                

Abstract

This paper presents models of equity valuation where future dividends are assumed to follow a generalized Bernoulli process consistent with the actual dividend payout behavior of many firms. This uncertain dividend stream induces a probability distribution of present value. We show how to calculate the first moment of this distribution using functional equations. As well, we demonstrate how to calculate a confidence interval using Monte Carlosimulation. This first moment and interval allows an analyst to determine whether a stock is overor under-valued.

Keywords

Dividend Discounting; Stochastic; Bernoulli

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

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