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Forecasting the Next Dry Cargo Shipping Depression beyond 2018

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DOI: 10.4236/me.2019.107110    107 Downloads   160 Views

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research was to forecast next maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method: “Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a prediction for 20 steps ahead. Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo index since 1741 [3] and to alpha1 coefficient. The lowest alpha predicted was 1.01 in 2038. Stopford’s dry cargo index forecast will be at its lowest point, of 114 (100 = 1947) units, in 2034 and 2035. Three cycles forecast to last 5, 5, and 4 years (2019-2038). Thus shipping has to learn to live with cycles… and depressions, but perhaps it is better if knowing them in advance.

Cite this paper

Goulielmos, A. (2019) Forecasting the Next Dry Cargo Shipping Depression beyond 2018. Modern Economy, 10, 1684-1712. doi: 10.4236/me.2019.107110.

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