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Forecasting the Next Dry Cargo Shipping Depression beyond 2018

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DOI: 10.4236/me.2019.107110    107 Downloads   160 Views


The purpose of this research was to forecast next maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method: “Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a prediction for 20 steps ahead. Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo index since 1741 [3] and to alpha1 coefficient. The lowest alpha predicted was 1.01 in 2038. Stopford’s dry cargo index forecast will be at its lowest point, of 114 (100 = 1947) units, in 2034 and 2035. Three cycles forecast to last 5, 5, and 4 years (2019-2038). Thus shipping has to learn to live with cycles… and depressions, but perhaps it is better if knowing them in advance.

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Goulielmos, A. (2019) Forecasting the Next Dry Cargo Shipping Depression beyond 2018. Modern Economy, 10, 1684-1712. doi: 10.4236/me.2019.107110.

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