Author(s)

Dalia M. Muñoz Pizza¹, Anibal Muñoz Loaiza¹, John F. Arredondo Montoya¹, Oscar A. Manrique¹, Vanessa Abello Sossa¹, Carlos A. Abello Muñoz¹, Steven Raigosa¹, Hans Meyer Contreras¹, Irma Pérez Contreras^1,2, Maria E. Cardenas Perea², Miguel A. Enríquez²

¹Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia.
²Facultad de Medicina, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, México.

It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus. A specific pregnant women susceptible group has been accounted for. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) has been obtained by implementing the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis with respect to each parameter has been applied to that threshold. Finally, the incidence to the exposure is obtained by performing several system simulations.

Model, Microcephaly, Zika Virus, Basic Reproduction Number, Sensitivity Analysis

Pizza, D. , Loaiza, A. , Montoya, J. , Manrique, O. , Sossa, V. , Muñoz, C. , Raigosa, S. , Contreras, H. , Contreras, I. , Perea, M. and Enríquez, M. (2016) A Model for the Risk of Microcephaly Induced by the Zika Virus (ZIKV). Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation, 4, 109-117. doi: 10.4236/ojmsi.2016.43010.