NS> Vol.2 No.11, November 2010
Views: 48,301    Downloads: 13,046

On the recovery from the Little Ice Age

DownloadDownload as PDF (Size:5054KB) Full-Text HTML PP. 1211-1224   DOI: 10.4236/ns.2010.211149

ABSTRACT

A number of published papers and openly available data on sea level changes, glacier retreat, freezing/break-up dates of rivers, sea ice retreat, tree-ring observations, ice cores and changes of the cosmic-ray intensity, from the year 1000 to the present, are studied to examine how the Earth has recovered from the Little Ice Age (LIA). We learn that the recovery from the LIA has proceeded continuously, roughly in a linear manner, from 1800-1850 to the present. The rate of the recovery in terms of temperature is about 0.5°C/100 years and thus it has important implications for understanding the present global warming. It is suggested on the basis of a much longer period covering that the Earth is still in the process of recovery from the LIA; there is no sign to indicate the end of the recovery before 1900. Cosmic-ray intensity data show that solar activity was related to both the LIA and its recovery. The multi-decadal oscillation of a period of 50 to 60 years was superposed on the linear change; it peaked in 1940 and 2000, causing the halting of warming temporarily after 2000. These changes are natural changes, and in order to determine the contribution of the manmade greenhouse effect, there is an urgent need to identify them correctly and accurately and remove them

KEYWORDS


Cite this paper

Akasofu, S. (2010) On the recovery from the Little Ice Age. Natural Science, 2, 1211-1224. doi: 10.4236/ns.2010.211149.

References

[1] Lamb, H.H. (1982) Climate, history, and the modern world. Methuen, New York, 387.
[2] Grove, J.M. (1988) The little ice age. Methuen, New York, 498.
[3] Esper, J., Cook, E.R. and Schweingruber, F.H. (2002) Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability, Science, 295, 2250-2253.
[4] Frank, D., Esper, J. and Cook, E.R. (2007) Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large-scale temperature reconstruction. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16709.
[5] National research council of the national academies. (2006), Washington, D.C., 145.
[6] Ito, K. (2003) Global warming (Chikyu Ondanka). Nippon Hyoronsha, 209.
[7] Nunn, P.D. (2007) Climate, Environment and society in the pacific during the last millennium. Elsevier, 302.
[8] Oppo, D.W., Rosenthal, Y. and Linsey, B.K. (2009) 2000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Nature 460, 1113-1116.
[9] Fagan, B. (2000) The Little Ice Age: How climate made history, 1300-1800. Perseus Book Group, 246.
[10] Keigwin, L.D. (1996) The Little Ice Age and medieval warming period in the Sargasso Sea. Science, 274, 1503-1508.
[11] Tarand, A. and Nordli, P.O. (2001) The Tallinn temperature series reconstructed back half a millennium by use of proxy data. In: Ogilvie, A.E.J. and Jónsson, T. Eds., The Iceberg in the Mist: Northern Research in Pursuit of a “Little Ice Age, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Holland, 189-199.
[12] van Engelen, J., Buisman, J. and Ijnsen, F. (2001) A millennium of weather, winds, and water in the lower countries. History and Climate: Memories of the Future, Kluwer Academic Press, New York, Boston, London, 101-124.
[13] Pollack, H.N. and Smerdon, J.E. (2004) Borehole climate reconstructions; spatial structure and hemispheric averages. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D11106.
[14] Asami, R., Yamada, T., Iryu, Y., Quinn, T.M., Meyer, C.P. and Paulay, G. (2005) Interannual and decadal variability of the western Pacific sea surface condition for the years 1787-2000: Reconstruction based on stable isotope record from a Guam coral. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, CO5018.
[15] Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D.M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N.M. and Karlen, W. (2007) Highly variable northern hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, 433, 613-617.
[16] Holmes, J.A. Zhang, J., Chenand, F., Qiang, M. (2007) Paleoclimatic implications of an 850-year oxygen isotope record from the northern Tibetan Plateau. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L23403.
[17] Liu, X., Shao, X., Zhao, L., Qin, D., Chen, T. and Ren, J. (2007) Dendroclimatic temperature record derived from tree-ring width and stable carbon isotope chronologies in the Middle Qilian Mountains, China, Arctic. Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 39, 651-657.
[18] Richey, J.N., Poore, R.Z., Flower, B.P. and Quinn, T.M. (2007) 1400 yr multi-proxy record of climate variability from the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geology, 35, 423.
[19] Aono, Y. (2006) Climate reconstruction of spring-time temperature using phonological data flowering of cherry tree from old document. Grad. School of Life and Environmental Science, Osaka Prefecture University, 111.
[20] Fritzsche, D., Schutt, R., Meyer, H., Miller, F., Wilhelms, T., Opel, T. and Savatyugin, L.M. (2006) Late Holocene ice core record from Akasemii Nauk Ice Cap, Severnaya Zemlya. Annals of Glaciology, 42, 361-366.
[21] Polyakov, I.V., Alekseev, G.V., Bekryaev, R.V., Bhatt, U., Colony, R.L., Johnson, M.A., Karklin, V.P., Makshtas, A.P., Walsh, D. and Yulin, A.V. (2002) Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 4.
[22] Isaksson, E., Hermanson, M., Hicks, S., Igarashi, M., Kamiyama, K., Moore, J., Motoyama, H., Muir, D., Pohjola, V., Vaikm?e, R., van de Wal , R.S.W. and Watanabe, O. (2003) Ice cores from Svalbard—useful archives of past climate and pollution history. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28, 1217-1228.
[23] Alexeev, V.A., Langen, P.L. and Bates, J.R. (2005) Polar amplification of surface warming on an aquaplanet in “ghost forcing” experiments without sea ice feedbacks. Climate Dynamics, 24, 655-666.
[24] Magnuson, J.J., Robertson, D.M., Benson, B.J., Wynne, R.H., Livingstone, D.M., Arai, T., Assel, R.A., Barry, G. R., Card, V., Kuusisto, E., Granin, N.G., Prowse, T.D., Stewart, K.M. and Vuglinski V.S. (2000) Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern hemisphere. Science, 289, 1743-1746.
[25] Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. and Holgate, S. (2006) Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, 11.
[26] Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J.C., Grinsted. A. and Woodworth, P.L. (2008) Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago? Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08715.
[27] Vinje, T. (2001) Anomalies and trends of sea-ice extent and atmospheric circulation in the Nordic seas during the period 1864-1998. Journal of Climate, 14, 255-267.
[28] Zhang, X., Lindsay, R., Steele. M. and Schweiger, A. (2008a) What drove the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007? Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L11505.
[29] Zhang, X., Sorteberg, A., Zhang, J., Gerdes, R. and Comiso, J.C. (2008b) Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L22701.
[30] Muskett, R. (2008) Personal communication.
[31] Molnia, B. (2008) Glaciers of North America and Alaska. USGS, professional paper 1386K, 525.
[32] ACIA (2005) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, UK, 1042.
[33] Strom, R.G. (2007) Hot House: Global climate change and the human condition. Copernicus Books, 302.
[34] Grove, J.M. (2001) The onset of the Little Ice Age. In: Jones, P.D., Ogilvie, A.E.J., Davies, T.D. and Briffa, K.R. Eds., History and Climate, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publication, 153-185.
[35] von Michael Kuhn, H. (2007) Fluctuations of the ‘Mer de Glace’ AD 1500-2000; an interdisciplinary approach using new historical data and neural network simulations. Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie, 40, 183.
[36] Holzhausen, H., Magny, M. and Zumbuühl, H.J. (2005) Glacier and lake-level variations in west-central Europe over the last 3500 years. The Holocene, 15, 789-801.
[37] Kargel, J. (2008) Earth Observatory newsroom: New images-retreat of Gangotri Glacier USGS, 2008. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=16584
[38] Crowley. T.J. and North, G.R. (1991) Paleoclimatology. Oxford University Press, UK, 339.
[39] Holgate, S.J. (2007) On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01602, doi:10.1029/2006GL028492.
[40] Nerem, R., Chambers, D., Choe, J., Mitchum, G. and Ries, J. (2008) Building and understanding a climate data record of sea level change. http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ science/scientific-investigations-2008/nerem.html
[41] Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). http://www.data.kishou.go-jp/climate/cpinfo/temp/ay-wld.html
[42] NOAA. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ anomalies/index.html
[43] Bryant, E. (1997) Climate Process & Change. Cambridge University Press, UK, 209.
[44] Wu, Z., Huang, N.E., Long, S.R. and Peng, C.-H. (2007) On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences, USA, 104, 14889-14894.
[45] Dahl-Jensen, D., Mosegaard, K., Gundestrup, N., Clow, G.D., Johnson, S.J., Hansen, A.W. and Balling, N. (1998) Past Temperatures Directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science, 282, 268-271.
[46] Alley, R.B. (2000) The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews, 19, 213-226.
[47] Burroughs, W.J. (2001) Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK, 298.
[48] Lang, K.R. (2000) The Sun from Space. Springer, New York, 357.
[49] Musccheler, R., Joos, F., Beer, J., Vonmoos, M.S. and Snowball, I. (2007) Solar activity during last 1000yr inferred from radionuclide records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 26, 2682-2692.
[50] Lean, J., Beer, J. and Bradley, R.S. (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implication for climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 22, 3195- 3198.
[51] Nozawa, T., Nagashima, T., Shiogama, H. and Crooks, S.A. (2005) Detecting natural influence on surface air temperature change in the early twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20719.
[52] Scafetta, N. and West, B.J. (2006) Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900-2000 global surface warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33, Lo5708.
[53] Scafetta, N. and West, B.J. (2006) Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature records. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17718.
[54] Soon, W. (2005) Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multi-decadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L16712, 5.
[55] Duhau, S. and de Jager, C. (2008) The solar dynamo and Its phase transitions during the last millennium. Solar Phys. 250, 1-15.
[56] Kerr, R.A. (2009) What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science, 326, 28-29.
[57] University of Washington (2008). http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
[58] Pielke Sr., R.A. (2008) A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 11, 54-55.
[59] Polyakov, I.V., Bekryaev, R.V., Alexseev, G.V., Bhatt, U., Colony, R.L., Johnson, M.A., Makshtas, A.P., and Walsh, D. (2003) Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the Maritime Arctic, 1875-2000. Journal of Climate, 16, 2067-2077.
[60] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.