TITLE:
Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought in the Northern Prone of Iraq Using Standardized Precipitation Index
AUTHORS:
Mazin Jameel, Saif Hameed, Khalid Shemal, Nadhir Al-Ansari, Salwan Ali Abed
KEYWORDS:
SPI, Drought, Climate Change
JOURNAL NAME:
Engineering,
Vol.15 No.10,
October
31,
2023
ABSTRACT: Drought becomes a serious issue in Iraq as upstream countries water
policies and climate change consequences. It has negative impacts on different
sectors, the environment, biodiversity, economy, and water resources. Long
periods of severe drought and no rainfall winter are continuing during the last
decades and the trend lines of the drought index gravitate toward unrecorded
levels. This research studied the drought by using the standardized
precipitation index “SPI” by analyzing the rainfall record since 1980 for the northern
prone of Iraq which includes Kurdistan Region Governorates “KRG” (Sulaymaniya,
Erbil, and Dohuk), Mosul, and Kirkuk to find out the drought pattern,
magnitude, and duration, and mapping the results. This index is a very powerful
index that is used worldwide when only rainfall data are available. SPI
generator is used for more accuracy and confidence. The results show that all
governorate has a vital issue and has a drought magnitude passed the thresholds
of M = -1.0, -1.5, -2.0, -2.5, -3.0, and -4.0 which means a deficit in the soil
moisture content, surface water, and groundwater. In Sulaymaniyah, the record
for SPI3, SPI6, and SPI48 respectively is about -3.4, -3.54, and -2.63; in
Erbil -2.73, -4.67, and -2.72; in Dohuk -4.22, -4.34, and -2.25; in Mosul -2.57,
-2.16: in Kirkuk -3.39, -3.04, and -3.41. It is clear that all governorates have depletion in groundwater
except Mosul which has contentious recharge, and in Erbil, both soil moisture
and surface water has no huge deficit due to high rainfall and snowpack in the
region. The results concluded that the whole region is subject to drought and
under threat of water resources depletion; it needs urgent long-term plans in a
sustainable manner to manage and conserve those sources and mitigate the climate
change consequences.