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12th Annual Meeting of China Association for Science and Technology on Information and Communication Technology and Smart Grid (AMCST 2010 E-BOOK)

Fuzhou,China,11.1-11.3，2010

ISBN: 978-1-935068-23-5 Scientific Research Publishing, USA

E-Book 660pp Pub. Date: November 2010

Category: Computer Science & Communications

Price: $120

Title: Coronary Artery Heart Disease Incidence Rate Forecasting Based on Nonparametric GARCH
Source: 12th Annual Meeting of China Association for Science and Technology on Information and Communication Technology and Smart Grid (AMCST 2010 E-BOOK) (pp 280-285)
Author(s): Fu-peng Tian, School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest University for Nationalities, Lanzhou 730030, China
Liang-liang Ma, School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest University for Nationalities, Lanzhou 730030, China
Abstract: Objective Based on nonparametric theory for conditional heteroskedasticity function, an improved method of disease incidence rate forecasting is proposed. Methods On the basis of real incidence rate time series, conditional variance function is modeled for stochastic volatility, and the model is determined by means of non-parametric estimation. In the nonparametric estimation process, an iterate algorithm is introduced to overcome the problem that volatility is unobserved latent variable so that the confidence of estimated conditional variance function is weak. On the study of stochastic volatility of coronary artery heart disease incidence rate in Haixizhou region in Qinghai, the forecasting is made. Results The results of test show that the proposed method has the capability of forecasting coronary artery heart disease incidence rate characteristic of volatility clustering, and improves the accuracy of incidence rate spikes forecasting. Conclusion Time series methods applied to historical reporting data of coronary artery heart disease incidence rate are an important tool for coronary artery heart disease surveillance．The established model is suitable to forecast the incidence rate of coronary artery heart disease in Qinghai Haixizhou region.
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